If the election were held today, Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-11th Dist.) would lose, according to a poll released by an activist group on Thursday.
The Congressman’s campaign rapped the poll’s methodology, calling it “the oldest polling trick in the book.”
Frelinghuysen, chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Commttee, will seek his 13th term next year. At the moment, he trails a generic Democratic challenger by more than 9 points, 37 percent to 46 percent, asserted the poll’s sponsor, NJ 11th for Change.
He lagged by a greater margin among respondents who were asked first about Frelinghuysen’s support for the stalled Obamacare repeal, the organization said.
Among those respondents, the Congressman trails by 30 percent to 50 percent (all figures here are rounded), NJ 11th for Change said. Even Republicans oppose cuts to Medicaid and Planned Parenthood, although it’s close in both categories.
“Frelinghuysen’s pat line to constituents for years has been, ‘rest assured I’ll keep your views in mind.’ The poll shows that either he doesn’t, or he’s ineffective in understanding the needs of the majority of citizens in his district,” Elizabeth Juviler, an organizer for NJ 11th For Change, said in a statement.
Frelinghuysen campaign spokesman Mike DuHaime said the poll was skewed to provide answers tailored to the “partisan democrat front group” that sponsored it.
“This is the oldest polling trick in the book,” DuHaime said via email.
Some 800 registered voters in the 11th District were surveyed via landlines and cellphones from July 17-22, 2017, by Reconnaissance Market Research of Austin, Texas. The sample was drawn from voter rolls of the 2014 and 2016 elections, with a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
“This partisan democrat front group only selectively released one ballot question taken only after giving a series of negative push questions against Rodney Frelinghuysen. This gives a deliberately false impression to trick donors and reporters into thinking a race is closer than it is,” said DuHaime, adding: “Rodney will defeat any candidate who faces him next year.”
For months, NJ 11th for Change has been pressing Frelinghuysen for a town hall meeting.
More poll details are here.
Here is what NJ11th says about how the polling was conducted. This comes straight from their website.
“A representative sample of 800 registered voters was called July 17-22 and asked for views on a range of issues including healthcare and the proposed replacements for the Affordable Care Act. Respondents were contacted via landlines and cellphones (60% used landlines; 40% cellphones). The sample was drawn from a list of district voters in the 2014 and 2016 elections; it carries a margin of error of 3.5%, for a 95% confidence interval.Calls were conducted by professional interviewers employed by Reconnaissance Market Research of Austin, Texas using CATI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing) systems. The research was funded by NJ 11th For Change, and the survey sponsor was disclosed to respondents only at the end of the survey, at the request of the respondent.”
Did Mr. DuHamie even read through the data in the poll?
His response is no more than the same old Republican line of trying to discredit the source.
Mike DuHaime — think twice before you take his word on anything. Remember he’s the guy who handed us Christie in 2009. Not much credibility there.
Re the “facts” — it looks like DuHaime adheres to the Mark Twin adage: “Never let the truth get in the way of a good story.”
That old polling trick where you ask people what they think and then record the answers. This was a controlled experiment. Half the respondents were asked the ballot question before anything about the factual ways Frelinguysen acted and voted. That’s where the 9 point lag was for him. For the other people that were asked the ballot question AFTER being asked about the AHCA vote, the lag was worse. It’s funny, but telling people how their congressman voted on something made them support him less. The oldest trick in the book. Facts.
Poor Mike Duhaime. He really needs to learn how to read polling data. But I guess shouting “fake news” is easier than actually learning more about the district Congressman Frelinghuysen is supposed to represent.